Russia’s oil shipments nudged down for a third week, but remain comfortably within the range seen so far this year. Threats of additional tariffs are having little immediate impact on flows ahead of a Friday meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
Four-week average crude shipments fell for a third week in the latest data, while seven-day flows rebounded. Seaborne cargoes averaged 3.11 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Aug. 10, down by about 3% from a revised 3.21 million barrels a day for the period to Aug. 3, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.
While India’s state-owned refiners have bought some cargoes of crude from non-Russian sources in the face of an additional 25% tariff imposed by President Trump on India’s exports to the US, it will be several weeks before it’s possible to gauge any effect on Russian shipments.
Companies may skip spot purchases of Moscow’s crude for October loading — but are awaiting clear government guidance. Any impact on flows will only become clearer when those cargoes load and even then, crude may be put on the water in anticipation of the situation being resolved before they arrive off India.
The tariffs are due to come into effect on Aug. 27 and could yet be reversed. Trump has also floated the possibility of additional tariffs on China, though the likelihood of the move was played down by White House trade adviser Peter Navarro. For now, the market appears to be discounting any significant disruption to Russian crude exports.
With Trump due to meet with Putin in Alaska to discuss the war in Ukraine on Friday, crude has continued to flow uninterrupted from Russia’s ports. Most shipments from the Pacific end up in China, while a voyage from the Baltic to the west coast of India takes about a month, leaving plenty of time for the additional tariffs on New Delhi to be reversed before the ships start to arrive.
Separately, Ukraine has intensified strikes against Russia’s oil refineries. Rosneft’s Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk plants were hit in the first days of August, while an attack on the company’s Saratov refinery on Sunday halted crude intake. Lower processing rates should make more crude available for export, but it will take time for the unexpected disruptions at the damaged refineries to show up in shipments. The attacks came as Russia is trying to boost crude processing to meet domestic fuel demand.
