Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre pounced on a government report that he argues predicts a “terrifying” world in 2040 to warn voters of the dangers of giving the Liberals a fourth term — but the actual report is far more nuanced.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Poilievre pointed to a policy report predicated on the idea that social mobility will severely decline in the coming decades as reason to not vote Liberal.
“The report paints a terrifying picture of a spiral of economic depression and cost inflation,” Poilievre said after releasing his party’s costed platform.
“What they are anticipating on the current trajectory is a total meltdown, a societal breakdown in Canada if we stay on the current track.”
The report is from Policy Horizons, billed as a foresight organization within the federal government which examines trends and possible future scenarios to help Ottawa build programs and policies “that are more robust and resilient in the face of disruptive change on the horizon.”
Their report, entitled Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question, was released in January but has recently been making the rounds online framed as predicting a “dystopia.”
Not only is the report far from that stark, its authors stress the document is not meant to be seen as predicting the future.
Premised on the suggestion that downward social mobility “might” become the norm in the future, the report’s authors lay out a scenario for 2040 “in which most Canadians find themselves stuck in the socioeconomic conditions of their birth and many face the very real possibility of downward social mobility.
“Currently, most Canadians still believe that they have equality of opportunity,” it said. “This may change.”
The authors call the scenario “neither the desired nor the preferred future,” but one Policy Horizons suggests is plausible.
In the scenario that sets up the report, by 2040 pursuing post-secondary education is no longer considered a reliable path to social mobility, people see inheritance as the only reliable way to get ahead, owning a home is not a realistic goal for many and the value of human labour has shrunk because of artificial intelligence (AI).
People also rarely mix with others of different socio-economic status because “algorithmic dating apps filter by class” and “gated metaverses” offer few opportunities to meet people from different backgrounds.
Struggles to afford bills, more powerful unions
After laying out that scenario, the report’s authors then ask readers to consider a range of policy-relevant implications — both positive and negative.
For example, in that future more people may struggle to afford rent, bills or groceries and the resulting stress could worsen mental health challenges.
“In an effort to protect their mental health, some people might redefine success away from accumulating wealth and toward purposefulness or happiness,” the report said. “More people might be willing to job-hop for better work-life balance or more meaningful work.”
In that 2040 scenario, the Canadian economy may shrink or become less predictable.
The report suggests property ownership may become even more concentrated if younger generations cast aside the goal of buying single-family dwellings in favour of renting or forming alternative households.
The scenario could also see trade unions “grow in power as workers become frustrated,” noted the report.
“Since many people have less in this future and see no way to improve their status through consumption and display, they spend less. This could shrink the consumer economy,” it said.
If the scenario comes to be, the report poses that people might find alternative ways to meet their basic needs.
“Housing, food, child care and health care co-operatives may become more common. This could ease burdens on social services but also challenge market-based businesses,” it said.
Another consideration is that “people may start to hunt, fish and forage on public lands and waterways without reference to regulations. Small-scale agriculture could increase.”
Getting ahead may never be as dire as scenario
The report concludes that getting ahead may never be as difficult or rare as suggested in this scenario.
“However, social stagnation and downward mobility are plausible elements of the future,” it said.
“Exploring them supports anticipatory governance by helping policymakers think through potential challenges and opportunities.”
While some of the policy considerations are bleak, the report also concludes that the loss of belief in social mobility could “make space for positive ideas.”
“People could rethink what ‘prosperity’ means, or ‘fulfilment,” it said. “They may focus on policies that promote human flourishing. This could include health care, housing, the environment and education for its own sake.”
In a statement to CBC News, a spokesperson for Policy Horizons stressed the social mobility report “is an exploration of a potential future” meant to assist the government’s planning.
“It is not a forecast nor a commentary on current or future policies,” said spokesperson Mila Roy. “Thinking through possible disruptions when developing policies, programs and strategies could help seize opportunities, navigate impacts and minimize risks.”
Policy Horizons falls under the Employment and Social Development Canada portfolio, but is overseen by a committee made up of deputy ministers from across government.
The report includes the disclaimer that it “does not necessarily represent the views of the Government of Canada.”
