The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are pursuing a strategy to reclaim market share rather than their typical role of managing prices, bringing back an additional layer of idled output. Still, prices have held up reasonably well, underpinned by robust buying from China.
The planned October hike — and potentially the boost for November — is much lower than the increments announced by the group for prior months. Delegates have also emphasized that the actual supply increase would be much lower as some member countries lack the ability to produce more.
However, the International Energy Agency is projecting a record glut in 2026 as OPEC+ continues to revive production and supply from the group’s rivals climbs. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees Brent falling to the mid-$50s a barrel next year, despite crude stockpiling from China.
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