MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, April 25th

Despite a shaky beginning, yesterday’s Mariners-Red Sox Under bet held on to cash in the end, and as a result, also extended our latest winning streak on totals. Let’s commence the weekend with another such victory. 

Friday’s effort comes from Chase Field in the desert, where the Arizona Diamondbacks are hosting the Atlanta Braves for the first of a three-game series. The opening contest wields a fascinating pitching matchup featuring the reigning National League Cy Young award winner, Chris Sale, going toe-to-toe with a top three finalist for the award from two seasons ago, Zac Gallen.

The most fascinating component is that both starters haven’t mostly been their normal selves here in the early going of 2025. Sale is 0-2 with an ugly 6.17 ERA and 1.63 WHIP, not to mention he’s allowed four home runs already in his five starts. That’s certainly notable because he yielded only nine homers combined in his 29 starts last year. 

Gallen, meanwhile, is currently saddled with a 5.60 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He, too, has had issues with the long ball, having seen five leave the yard in five outings. There were only 13 home runs launched off the right-hander across 28 assignments in 2024. 

Both ERA and WHIP marks would represent career worsts for each starting pitcher if those numbers finish around there. But here’s the thing: Sale and Gallen are still really good pitchers and much better than what they’ve put on display thus far. 

Possessing that mindset, this can be viewed as a great buy-low opportunity in regard to each hurler. If both players were throwing the ball at their usual high level, there’s no way this affair would carry an over/under as high as 8.5 

And there is reason to believe they are each on the upswing. Sale shockingly hasn’t thrown more than five innings in a game yet but you know that’s going to change any start now. Although he’s been running his pitch counts high, the 13-year vet is still punching out batters at an elite level. In fact, if Sale had enough innings to qualify (which he probably will after tonight), his strikeout rate of 12.3 K/9 would rank him tied for fourth best in the majors – with friend of the column Max Meyer. 

Another tell-tale sign that Sale is about to rebound is that he’s already dealt with some horrendous luck. It would be impossible for him to sustain that ridiculous .422 (!) batting average on balls put in play against him, so if that number is about to go down significantly, you can anticipate much better results ahead from the hard-throwing southpaw. 

As illustrated by his usual high strikeout totals, Sale is still armed with upper echelon stuff and that should decisively lead him out of the current rut he might be in at the moment. And one thing that can cure his early problems with homers – at least as far as tonight goes – is that the Diamondbacks have only swatted four homers versus left-handed pitching in 205 at-bats. 

With Gallen, he hasn’t had the same misfortunes as his counterpart this evening (.284 BABIP) but the former All Star clearly has better days coming sooner than later. Perhaps that stretch began in his most recent assignment. 

Sure, the 29-year-old did get tagged for six runs at Wrigley Field during that last turn, but it was still encouraging that after Gallen bounced back after yielding all that damage in the first two innings to allow nothing else in the ensuing four. 

Being at home can also aid Gallen in his cause. He’s always generally performed better when pitching in front of the Arizona faithful, being 32-18 with a 3.08 ERA and 10 K/9 in 72 starts at Chase Field, spanning 417 2/3 innings. He’s been good opposite the Braves in his career, too, as evidenced by the 3.19 ERA he’s etched in five career meetings.

Call it a sale on gallons of milk, or whatever pun you can think of. The fact remains is that such a meeting between two still-All-Star-caliber starters won’t usually garner a total this high, and it’s one worth attempting to capitalize on. 

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-112, DraftKings)  

2025 MLB Betting Record: 18-15-1, +0.31 unit 

Over/Unders: 16-10-1 

Props: 2-4 

MLs: 0-1 

Yesterday’s Result: Mariners-Red Sox Under 8 (WIN) 

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated. 

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