With high-stakes drama playing out Saturday night, we’re left with a pair of No. 1 seeds squaring off in San Antonio with the national championship on the line.
The Florida Gators won the SEC and toppled two-time defending champion UConn on their way to winning the West Region, before erasing a second-half deficit to eliminate fellow SEC No. 1 Auburn in the Final Four. The Gators will play for their third national championship in program history.
The Houston Cougars won the Midwest Region to make their second Final Four appearance in five seasons under coach Kelvin Sampson. After a thrilling comeback win over tournament favorite Duke in the Final Four, including a 9-0 run in the game’s final 35 seconds, Houston has made it back to the title game for the first time since 1984.
Florida opened as a slight early favorite over Houston, as books released their odds shortly after the game.
Odds are accurate as of publication time. For the latest odds, go to ESPN BET.
Bet: Florida -1
Florida might have the most versatile style of play in the country. Many teams would have a difficult time with the way Houston slows games down: playing at a bottom-10 pace, but the way Florida played the likes of Tennessee and Connecticut earlier this season shows it can slow down and win from within.
Florida has the fourth-highest offensive rebounding rate in the country, which is all the more effective with how well Walter Clayton Jr. has been shooting in the NCAA tournament. While L.J. Cryer‘s 6-of-9 3-point shooting performance against Duke was impressive, Clayton became the first player since Larry Bird to put together two consecutive 30-plus-point games in the Elite Eight and Final Four and is the difference in this tight matchup.
Bet: Houston vs. Florida total over 141.5
Houston plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. Its offense is the most efficient it has ever been under Kelvin Sampson, leading the country with a 39.9% 3-point shooting percentage. Florida ranks 43rd and Houston ranks 127th in field goal shooting percentage, but both teams remain consistent with an ability to score while ranking among the top 10 in offensive rebound percentage.
Florida scored 79 points on Saturday despite forward Alex Condon contributing only one point. This game is expected to be close, and if that proves to be true, the prospect of late fouling in the closing seconds or overtime gives this bet extra value.
