Islamabad/New Delhi, May 8:Amid growing regional tensions, strategic experts warn that a full-scale military conflict between India and Pakistan could have catastrophic consequences particularly for Pakistan, whose fragile economy, political instability, and international vulnerabilities may leave it unable to recover as a functioning state. While both nations possess nuclear weapons and formidable military forces, Pakistan’s economic fundamentals are far weaker, raising fears that any prolonged war could lead to its near-total collapse.
Economic Time Bomb Ticking
Pakistan’s economic condition remains precarious. As of December 2024, the country’s external debt stood at $131.1 billion, with a significant portion owed to China under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The country is also reliant on a $7 billion IMF bailout program, which is tied to stringent economic reforms.“In the event of war, IMF support could vanish overnight. No multilateral agency will fund a war economy,” said a senior economist at the Lahore School of Economics. Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves, meanwhile, hover around $15.25 billion barely enough to cover two months of imports compared to India’s more robust $650+ billion in reserves. The Pakistani rupee, already under pressure, traded at PKR 280 per USD in early 2025. A war could trigger further depreciation, inflation, and massive capital flight, effectively crashing the economy. Targeted Infrastructure and Industrial Collapse Military analysts note that Pakistan’s limited industrial capacity and energy dependence make it especially vulnerable to strategic strikes. “Pakistan’s power grid is already strained. Targeted strikes on dams, oil refineries, or transmission lines could bring the country to a standstill,” said retired Air Marshal Shahid Latif. India’s diversified industrial and technological base offers it more resilience. In contrast, Pakistan’s chronic energy shortages and underdeveloped logistics network make any recovery post-conflict daunting.
International Isolation and Diplomatic Risks
Pakistan’s global standing is another concern. Though previously removed from the FATF grey list, the country remains under scrutiny for terror financing. A war, especially if perceived as initiated by Pakistan, could renew FATF sanctions and trigger global condemnation. “Pakistan doesn’t enjoy the same level of diplomatic cushioning that India has through its partnerships with the U.S., EU, Japan, and others,” said geopolitical analyst Dr. Ramesh Thapar. Trade bans, financial restrictions, and diplomatic isolation would not only worsen the economic downturn but also reduce access to humanitarian and post-war reconstruction aid.
Humanitarian and Social Breakdown
With over 240 million people, many of whom rely on subsidized food, fuel, and public services, Pakistan faces the risk of mass internal displacement, food shortages, and civil unrest in wartime.
Healthcare and education sectors, already under stress, would be overwhelmed. Experts caution that prolonged instability could create a refugee crisis, destabilizing the broader South Asian region.
“Pakistan could witness internal fragmentation, especially if civilian institutions collapse and regional factions assert control,” said Dr. Ayesha Jalal, historian and political scientist.
Nuclear Deterrence: Not a Silver Bullet
While both countries have nuclear arsenals, the doctrine of mutual deterrence may not prevent conventional warfare, cyber-attacks, or surgical strikes. India has significantly advanced its cyber capabilities and intelligence operations, giving it leverage to inflict strategic damage without escalating to a nuclear exchange. “Deterrence works only until one side believes it can win without going nuclear. Cyber and economic warfare are game-changers,” said security analyst Lt. Gen. S.L. Narasimhan (Retd.).
A War Pakistan Cannot Afford
Unlike India, Pakistan lacks domestic resilience:
•Less than 1% of the population pays income tax.
•Its tech industry is nascent, and
•Governance institutions are frequently under pressure from military interference.
Even a short conflict could result in long-term stagnation, with no clear path to recovery without extensive foreign aid that may be withheld if global perceptions turn against Islamabad.
Existential Stakes
While nationalistic fervor may dominate public discourse, the realities of a modern war would likely devastate Pakistan far more than India. With the looming threat of economic ruin, international isolation, and social breakdown, experts argue that Pakistan risks becoming a failed state if it cannot avoid war. “This is not just about territory or retaliation it’s about the survival of the state,” said Dr. Maleeha Lodhi, former Pakistani ambassador to the United Nations. In a region already burdened with poverty, environmental stress, and geopolitical friction, peace remains not just desirable but essential.
