Is Leeds falling apart again? Middlesbrough pounce as playoff hopefuls stumble, and Derby surges out of the relegation zone after an incredible run of form. The EFL Championship heads into its final six games of the season, and everything is still to play for…
The promotion picture offers more surprises as the weeks pass and the playoff race loses a few horses as some stumble towards the finish line. The relegation fight is still as bloody as ever, with five to six teams in danger of relegation.
Is Leeds Falling Apart Again?
These last few weeks have seen the top three constantly swap places, with Burnley being the big winners as they climb to the top of the table. Sheffield United dropped to second place after a surprising defeat to relegation-threatened Oxford United.
Leeds, however, has hit an awful run of form after sitting atop the table for a large portion of the season. This sees them drop into third place and the playoff picture. Chants ring out mockingly as fans sing, “Leeds are falling apart again”, and it’s hard to argue.
With just one win in six games against Millwall, Leeds has had to make do with four draws. However, those draws appear more of a cause for concern. Against QPR, they had to come from behind to snatch a point, and Swansea were the better of the two sides and was unlucky to be held to a draw.
Why are they struggling to see out the season? The blame is largely placed on goalkeeper Illan Meslier. Compared to Burnley’s keeper, James Trafford, his save percentage is significantly lower, but he faces slightly more shots on target per 90 minutes. It’s too easy to blame the keeper when things are going wrong; however, Meslier is prone to a devastating mistake or two.
Daniel Farke has decided to drop Meslier in favour of Championship veteran Karl Darlow. Early signs suggest this won’t be a quick fix, with Leeds drawing 1-1 with Luton Town. With six games left, I’m sure we’ll see these three sides battling right to the end.
Middlesbrough Pounces on Playoff Stumblers
A few weeks ago, both Coventry and West Brom appeared to be the favourites for the remaining two playoff places. This week, however, the script has been flipped. Bristol City and Middlesbrough have put themselves in the driving seat, heading into the final six.
Middlesbrough will face Leeds, followed by Millwall, Plymouth, Sheffield Wednesday, Norwich, and a blockbuster final showdown against fellow playoff hopefuls Coventry.
Bristol City, on the other hand, must do battle with West Brom, QPR, Sunderland, Luton, Leeds and Preston. A slightly more difficult run-in, but Bristol has only lost one in their last nine games.
Coventry has lost three in their last five games but has had to go through their most difficult run of games, facing off against Sunderland, Sheffield United and Burnley. They have a more favourable run-in against Portsmouth, Hull, West Brom, Plymouth, Luton and Middlesbrough.
These three seem the most likely to make up the final two spots as they have been the best-performing playoff chasers. From Millwall downwards, the points gap is too large for the remaining six games and would require a cataclysmic end for at least four sides.
The only other team that “could” catch them, albeit very weakly, is West Bromwich Albion. However, an awful run of form has seen them nosedive out of the playoff picture with no signs of improvement coming. Losses to playoff rivals and tricky games seem to have sealed their place in the Championship for another season.
Sunderland Guarantees a Playoff Spot
Whilst it isn’t mathematically confirmed, Sunderland can rest easy knowing they’re the only guaranteed side to feature in this season’s playoff competition. They’ve known this for a long time, as they couldn’t catch the leading pack, but they won’t drop from their fourth-place spot.
With time to prepare, you’d expect Sunderland to show the rest of the league what they’re made of. However, after a recent visit to the Hawthorns, against an inferior Albion side devoid of confidence, Sunderland didn’t exactly impress.
In their 1-0 victory, they were unimpressive. They didn’t look like a side capable of breaking a side like the Baggies down, relying on a fortunate free kick to secure all three points. They only managed seven shots against a side constantly leaving themselves exposed at the back.
Sunderland lost the ball often and was caught offside multiple times across the game. They will need to improve drastically to be promoted through the playoffs.
Derby Surge to Safety
Question marks were raised when John Eustace swapped playoff-chasing Blackburn for relegation-threatened Derby. A bad start saw him lose three on the bounce, including a 4-0 loss to QPR. It was starting to look like Derby would suffer a swift return to the Championship…
Next, Blackburn arrived at Derby with a point to prove. Shockingly, Derby ran riot in the first 10 minutes, scoring twice in the third and seventh minutes. Blackburn would claw one back, but it would be in vain.
Following this win, Derby would follow that up with a statement win against Coventry, a late 3-2 win against relegation rivals Plymouth and a confident 2-0 versus Preston. The Rams would drag themselves out of the relegation zone and into 21st place.
Derby and Eustace have put themselves into a great position heading into the tail end of the season. It’s all in their hands, and they’ve helped reel in some of those sides that thought they might be safe.
The Relegation Picture
Currently, the bottom three are Plymouth, Luton, and Cardiff. Even though they’re on 41 points and the closest to safety, Cardiff has the worst form and is sinking like a stone. Plymouth are in decent form but may have left it too late, requiring a lot to go their way.
Luton, like Derby, is in excellent form. With six to go, they have put themselves within three points of safety. With Stoke, Blackburn, and Derby next up for Luton, they have a chance of clawing their way out of danger before their final three. However, their last three games are less than desirable, as they played Bristol, Coventry, and West Brom.
Cardiff has a much more difficult run-in and is in poor form. They must face off against Preston, Stoke, Sheffield United, Oxford, West Brom and finally Norwich. Games against Stoke and Oxford are pivotal in this final stretch to the finish line.
With the bottom three in such good form, teams like Portsmouth and Oxford are dragged back into a relegation scrap. Both are on 45 points, which, a few weeks ago, seemed enough to secure safety. But now, teams as high up as QPR in 16th can see themselves drop into the battle with a poor run of form. Just five points separate them from the relegation spots.
If the threatened teams continue to pick up points, then we could be in for a blockbuster end to the season. As many as nine teams could be fighting for survival on the final day, a refreshing sight for a league that usually has its relegation spots decided by early April.
Six To Go
With the final six games fast approaching, Luton, Derby and Middlesbrough are the big winners, putting themselves in the driving seat of their destinies.
Leeds, West Brom, and Cardiff are the miserable losers watching their seasons evaporate before their very eyes. As automatics, playoffs, and survival start to drift away for each side, the nerves begin to build for a blockbuster end.
Who will go up? Who will stay down? And is Leeds falling apart again? It sure looks like it.
