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Understanding inflation and the need for hedges

Bitcoin’s supply-and-demand dynamics, in addition to growing institutional adoption, position it as a potential hedge against inflation in 2025. However, its high volatility and centralization concerns mean it remains a speculative asset rather than a guaranteed safeguard against inflation.

What is inflation? 

Inflation refers to the general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy over time, leading to a decrease in the purchasing power of money. As prices rise, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Inflation is typically measured by indexes such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the average change in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services.

Traditional inflation hedges

To protect against the eroding effects of inflation, investors have traditionally turned to certain asset classes known to retain value or appreciate during inflationary periods:

• Gold: Often considered a safe haven, gold has historically maintained its value and is viewed as a store of wealth during periods of high inflation.
• Real estate: Property values and rental income tend to rise with inflation, making real estate a common hedge.
• Inflation-indexed bonds: These government or corporate bonds adjust interest payments based on inflation rates, helping preserve purchasing power.

These assets are favored because they either have intrinsic value or their returns are linked to inflation rates, offering a buffer against currency devaluation.

Bitcoin as digital gold

In recent years, Bitcoin has entered the conversation as a potential modern hedge against inflation, dubbed “digital gold.” Advocates argue that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and fixed supply of 21 million coins make it resistant to inflationary pressures. 

Unlike fiat currencies — which central banks can issue in unlimited quantities — Bitcoin’s (BTC) predetermined, limited supply creates digital scarcity, similar to precious metals. Its global accessibility and independence from monetary policy have positioned it as an attractive store of value for inflation-conscious investors.

Does Bitcoin protect against inflation?

Bitcoin’s fixed supply, decentralization and growing institutional adoption position it as a compelling hedge against inflation, especially during times of fiat currency instability.

There are a few arguments to suggest so. 

Supply dynamics and market impact

Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins, along with the halving event that occurs every four years, are often cited as reasons for its inflation-resistant properties. But the real strength lies in how that scarcity interacts with market demand.

When demand increases — whether driven by institutional interest or macroeconomic instability — the fixed supply can drive sharp price appreciation. This dynamic can make Bitcoin appealing during inflationary periods, as investors seek alternatives to devaluing fiat currencies.

Decentralization and monetary policy independence

Bitcoin is not subject to the policies of any central bank. Its monetary rules are hardcoded and transparent, reducing the risk of unexpected changes like quantitative easing or interest rate manipulation. This predictability appeals to investors looking for protection from inflation caused by government policies.

Portability and accessibility

Being entirely digital, Bitcoin can be transferred across borders instantly without relying on banks or intermediaries. This portability makes it particularly valuable in countries facing hyperinflation or capital controls, where citizens may need to move wealth quickly and securely.

Market perception and institutional adoption

Bitcoin’s legitimacy has grown with increasing institutional interest. Companies like Strategy and Tesla have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets, helping frame it as a viable long-term investment. As institutional adoption increases, so too does Bitcoin’s potential to serve as an inflation hedge in the eyes of mainstream investors.

Did you know? Bitcoin’s performance has shown a notable correlation with global money supply growth. Analysts suggest that Bitcoin may serve as a barometer for global monetary dilution, offering insights into inflationary trends across economies.

Bitcoin vs. inflation: The institutional adoption effect

It’s not just retail investors getting involved with Bitcoin — institutions have been watching from the sidelines and are now stepping in with serious capital, providing Bitcoin investment products and developing state-of-the-art market infrastructure.

Corporate Bitcoin pioneers: Strategy and Metaplanet

In 2025, institutional Bitcoin adoption has surged, led by companies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Metaplanet.

• Strategy: Under Michael Saylor’s leadership, Strategy has accumulated around 538,200 BTC — valued at almost $47 billion as of April 2025;
• Metaplanet: Nicknamed “Asia’s MicroStrategy,” Metaplanet holds almost $430 million in Bitcoin (April 2025) and aims to reach 21,000 BTC by 2026. 

Did you know? In 2025, the State of Wisconsin Investment Board became the first US state pension fund to invest directly in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), allocating approximately $160 million — about 0.1% of its total assets. 

Expansion of Bitcoin investment products

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has dramatically increased retail and institutional access. In the US, Bitcoin ETFs are projected to attract up to $3 billion in inflows in Q2 2025 alone.

Major asset managers such as BlackRock now include Bitcoin in model portfolios, further embedding it in the traditional financial ecosystem.

Advancements in market infrastructure

Bitcoin markets have matured thanks to a series of infrastructure upgrades:

• New custody solutions and insurance products have alleviated concerns about asset theft or loss.
• Clearer legal frameworks have made it easier for institutions to invest with confidence.
• Institutional-grade exchanges have improved liquidity and execution for large trades.

Together, these changes have deepened market confidence and expanded institutional participation.

Is Bitcoin really an inflation hedge? Counterarguments and limitations

Bitcoin has a lot going for it — limited supply, decentralization and borderless utility — but several challenges complicate its role as an inflation hedge.

It’s still wildly volatile

Even in 2025, Bitcoin’s price can be erratic. It surged past $109,000 in March, then fell below $75,000 just weeks later. As of April, it’s hovering around $88,000 — a more than 20% drop.

By contrast, traditional hedges like gold or treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) rarely move more than a few percent in a bad month. That kind of stability matters when trying to preserve purchasing power.

Did you know? Despite their substantial Bitcoin acquisitions, companies like Strategy and Metaplanet have faced significant unrealized losses due to market volatility. In Q1 2025, Strategy reported a staggering $5.91 billion in unrealized losses on its Bitcoin holdings. Similarly, Metaplanet disclosed a net loss of $2.1 million for the nine-month period ending in 2025.

Decentralized? Sort of

Bitcoin is decentralized in principle, but real-world control is more concentrated:

• Five mining pools control over 67% of network hash power, raising concerns about potential 51% attacks.
• Just 2% of wallets hold 95% of all circulating BTC.

This centralization undermines the idea of Bitcoin as a universally safe and democratic asset.

People don’t really use it — They speculate

Despite all the hype, Bitcoin still isn’t used much for everyday transactions:

• Network fees are often $5–$15.
• The Lightning Network was supposed to help but remains difficult to use and underfunded.

Instead, stablecoins like Tether’s USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC) now power over 60% of all crypto transactions — especially in emerging markets.

Does Bitcoin protect against inflation?

Bitcoin can serve as a hedge — but it’s a high-risk, high-volatility option. It behaves more like a speculative tech stock than a traditional inflation shield like gold or TIPS. 

If you’re looking for protection from inflation, Bitcoin might help — or it might drop 30% in a week. Either way, it’s not a guaranteed safety net.