Bitcoin could retest $90K as Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill sets stage for liquidity crunch: Arthur Hayes

Key Takeaways

The US Treasury’s plan to refill the TGA may temporarily contract dollar liquidity, which could impact Bitcoin’s price and risk a $90,000 retest.
Investors are reallocating portfolios toward staked USDe and reducing altcoin exposure amid market uncertainty driven by liquidity concerns.

President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill could hike the US debt ceiling, potentially triggering a sizeable liquidity drain that eventually puts pressure on Bitcoin’s price, said Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder and well-known macro voice in crypto, in his new article.

According to Hayes, Trump’s upcoming spending package, which is scheduled for a final House vote today, will unlock new borrowing capacity for the US Treasury. This would allow the Treasury to refill its Treasury General Account (TGA), which has been drawn down to keep the government running since the start of the year.

The TGA currently sits at $364 billion and is expected to return to a target of $850 billion once the debt ceiling is lifted. That means a refill would drain nearly $500 billion in liquidity from the markets, which could create a headwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets, Hayes noted.

In this scenario, Bitcoin could retest the $90,000 to $95,000 range before resuming its long-term uptrend, he suggested.

However, Hayes added that if markets digest the bond issuance smoothly, Bitcoin could remain range-bound in the $100,000s, though unlikely to break the all-time high of $112,000 before September.

“If the TGA refill proves to be dollar liquidity negative, then the downside is $90,000 to $95,000. If the refill proves to be a nothingburger, Bitcoin will chop in the $100,000s without a decisive break above the $112,000 all-time-high,” the analyst stated.

Hayes expects markets to drift sideways to slightly lower between now and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium in August. He believes Powell may signal the end of quantitative tightening or unveil regulatory changes at the event.

If it happens, the analyst believes it could result in a liquidity surge, which, combined with political incentives for Republicans to ramp up spending before the 2026 midterms, could re-accelerate Bitcoin’s rally into year-end.

Bitcoin was trading at about $109,200 at press time, edging closer to its all-time high, per TradingView.

The $10 trillion liquidity bomb

Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, despite a potential short-term dip tied to the US Treasury’s liquidity drain.

While the upcoming refill of the Treasury General Account could weigh on markets, he sees it as a temporary setback rather than a trend reversal.

Hayes believes over ten trillion dollars in liquidity could eventually enter the system through structural shifts like stablecoin adoption by major banks and the possible end of the Fed’s interest payments on reserves.

“Some of you are still waiting for monetary Godot. You are waiting for Fed Chairperson Powell to announce another round of unlimited QE and rate cuts before you sell bonds and buy crypto. It ain’t happening, at least not until the US definitely enters a kinetic war against Russia, China, and/or Iran, or a large systemically important financial institution is on the brink of collapse,” Hayes stated.